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Understanding rating movements in euro area countries
Brůha, Jan ; Karber, Moritz ; Pierluigi, Beatrice ; Setzer, Ralph
This paper investigates the link between sovereign ratings and macroeconomic fundamentals for a group of euro area countries that recorded rating downgrades during the euro area sovereign debt crisis. We apply an elaborated econometric estimation technique, based on a Bayesian ordered probit model, to understand how the decisions of rating agencies can be explained by economic developments. The estimated model reproduces historical ratings by using a small number of economic and institutional variables which seem to effectively summarize the large number of criteria used by Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s and Fitch in their assignment of sovereign ratings. Our results suggest that the size of the downgrades observed since the start of the sovereign crisis has been broadly in line with the deterioration of economic fundamentals for most countries.
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Comparative analysis of the development of holding sovereign securities in the banking sectors of the eurozone countries in 2005-2015
Topinka, Tomáš ; Pekárek, Štěpán (advisor) ; Bednář, Milan (referee)
The bachelor thesis is focused on the comparative analysis of holdings of sovereign securities in the banking sectors of the European Monetary Union member countries, especially during the financial and debt crisis. Based on the graphical analysis, it identifies and clarifies the volatility observed at the level of certain groups of countries. The work comes with the statement that, especially during the debt crisis, the so-called home-bias is reinforced and thus exposes the banking sector to the credit risk of the state. At the same time, bachelor thesis advocates setting up regulatory requirements to ensure, that a level of regulatory capital is created that objectively reflects the credit risk of the state.
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Co způsobilo vzestupy a pády úrokových měr státních dluhopisů během evropské dluhové krize?
Václavíček, Tomáš ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Kovář, Kamil (referee)
This study examines the determinants of government bond spreads vis-a-vis Germany for eleven EMU member countries in the period 2000Q1 to 2013Q3 with a special focus on the European Debt Crisis. The aim of the thesis is to test whether selected financial, fiscal and macroeconomic variables have an impact on government bond spreads. A novel contribution is testing whether there has been a significant change of government bond spread determinants following the ECB interventions in summer 2012. Variables reflecting the sustainability of public finance, liquidity of government bonds, risk aversion and competitiveness of a particular country were found to be significant determinants of government bond spreads, unlike banking sector indicators. Government bond spreads thus increase in response to rising debts and deficits and the loss of international competitiveness. No significant change in the composition of government bond yield determinants as a whole was found for the period after the ECB interventions, despite changes in several variables. Results of the thesis suggest that it is important to follow a sound fiscal policy and to prevent a deterioration of a country's international competitiveness in order to keep government bond spread of a particular country low.
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European imbalances and the debt crisis in Europe
Razumnova, Alexandra ; Hnát, Pavel (advisor) ; Bič, Josef (referee)
The imbalances within the Euro-zone were the main reasons of the crisis that had led to the growing budget deficits in the Southern Europe resulting in the accumulation of unsustainable debt. The imbalances were caused by the declining competitiveness of the South vis-s-vis the North. The main causes of the declining competitiveness are the differences in unit labor costs invoked by different regulations concerning the labor markets in the Euro-zone countries and the diverging levels of productivity, which is liked with the different levels of technological advancement. The contributing factor is the institutional imperfections of the EMU, that did not allow the countries in Southern Europe to restore their competitiveness by traditional means without providing them with alternatives.
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Sovereign Debt in the European Union from 2001 to 2011 - difficulties and possible solutions
Řezanková, Alena ; Karpová, Eva (advisor) ; Hnát, Pavel (referee)
The global economic and financial crisis resulted in worldwide rising government debt levels, especially from 2008 to 2011. This thesis focuses on the sovereign debt crisis in the European Union and illustrates its member countries' debt levels in the period from 2001 to 2011. Two main indicators are considered: accumulated sovereign debt and its share in GDP. The following part outlines main measures taken in order to decrease general debt level in the European Union. Furthermore a selection of various presented proposals is introduced. The last part of the thesis speculatively evaluates all of these instruments and indicates possible imperfections.
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